Can Numbers Explain Diamond Hogs' Woes?

This blog post isn’t going to be pretty. There is your warning.

However, it will reflect the way Arkansas has played these last few games. In short, the Hogs are not getting timely hits and are not throwing strikes.

But if I were only to speak in short, there would be no reason to blog. I could fit that into 140 characters on Twitter.

I am a big numbers guy. They fascinate me (weird, I know). I enjoy looking at box scores of games I have seen to make sense of the outcome. I could also spend a large amount of time dissecting team stats if I didn't have a wife, grad school and research to tend to. Therefore, it is natural for me to want to look at the numbers to explain why the Razorbacks have been struggling these last few games. 

So let me discuss what I believe to be the roots of the problem and how Dave Van Horn and company can fix it.

First, I do not believe Van Horn can actually do anything to fix it. Sure he can mix up the lineup (which he has done) or light a fire under some guys with post game speeches (probably did that as well). But at the end of the day the players have to respond.

Offense

Everyone slumps. I get that. Even teams slump together at times. But I wouldn’t say the Razorbacks are in a complete slump offensively. They are still hitting .315, good for 14^th in the country, and slugging (total bases reached per at bat) .483, which ranks them 6^th. However, they are now 45^th with 6.9 runs scored per game after being among the top 5 for the first several weeks of the season.

The large drop in scoring has come primarily because timely hitting has dropped. One statistic that supports this theory is runners left on base. At the end of each inning the number of runners that are stranded on base are counted.

You normally don’t care about leaving many runners on base if you score a lot of runs. That just means you have been getting on base all game and, after all, you don’t expect to score every runner you get on base. But if you have a large number of runners left on base and haven’t scored many runs, you need to do a better job of hitting when there are opportunities to score.

Arkansas has left 7.2 runners per game this season. The first game against Gonzaga they left 8 runners and lost by 4. The game before that against Loyola Marymount they left 9 on base and were shutout 9-0. Against Maryland they lost by 7 and left 6 on base and against UCF they left 9 on base and lost by 4, all the while recording 10 and 11 hits in those respective games.

Watching the games also gives insight that statistics cannot. It will never show up in the box score that Bobby Wernes hit the ball well right at someone several times in the last few games. Baseball was created in such a way that it naturally would be the demise of hitters. There are so few places to hit a ball where there isn’t someone occupying space close enough to get you out.

Offensively, the ultimate issue isn’t that they are not hitting. They just aren’t getting the hits in situations that can score runs, which is a problem that can fix itself as long as the team keeps hitting.

Pitching

Where to start, right?

It is appropriate to start with the end – the relief pitching. The bullpen depth was projected to be the weak part of this team. We knew they were inexperienced, young, and not highly prospected.

But could we have foreseen it would be this bad?

In 121 innings this pitching staff has allowed 70 walks, hit 21 batters, thrown 15 wild pitches, and balked 3 times while posting a 4.46 ERA. Earned run average is how many runs you allow without the use of an error per 9 innings. I consider less than 3.5 good. We have had a cumulative 2.47 the last 3 years. Something is very different this year.

We have 3 starters and 1 reliever I feel confident putting out there against the best teams. There is also a group of pitchers I don’t feel confident putting out there against the worst teams.

In an effort to not single any one player out I will refer to this group of pitchers as the bottom 4 in ERA. Easy to spot on the stats list (at the bottom), they are the guys who won’t hear their number called when conference games start this weekend. They have accounted for 35% of the team’s walks, 30% of the hit batters, 2 of the 3 balks, and have a combined 11.38 ERA in 22.2 innings.

Strangely enough, this group has also struck out 33 batters (26% of team total). That is a good total in just over 22 innings. If they are trying to strike out every batter they face then this debacle can easily be fixed. Try to pitch to contact more. In other words, don't be scared to let them be able to put the bat on the ball.

Not being able to throw strikes is the biggest problem you can have as a pitcher. At least by putting it over the plate you give the 8 guys around you the chance to field the ball and make an out. Putting people on base at the rate the Razorbacks have lately has been most frustrating. To fans, players, and coaches alike. I have no doubt the most frustrated of all are thinking right now of ways they are going to come out and perform better next time. For their playing time’s sake and for the sake of this team’s success, they better figure it out quickly.

Beginning Friday, this schedule is about to become exponentially more difficult. The next two weekends’ series are against two teams that have been ranked No. 1 already this season. As good of hitting teams as they are, I’m sure they are going to be well coached to be patient against a struggling bullpen.

Do I think the season is tanked? Am I throwing in the towel before the real season even starts?

I don’t think that is appropriate. But I will be keeping an eye on the state of clutch hitting and relief pitching. It will be interesting and fun to see who will step up. The offense is too deep to not find those who can, and the pitching staff is too well coached not to have some answer the call.

Now that the “preseason” has come and gone, the Diamond Hogs will need to wipe the slate clean and come out in Nashville with a fresh approach.