Can Numbers Explain Diamond Hogs' Woes?

This blog post isn’t going to be pretty. There is your warning.

However, it will reflect the way Arkansas has played these last few games. In short, the Hogs are not getting timely hits and are not throwing strikes.

But if I were only to speak in short, there would be no reason to blog. I could fit that into 140 characters on Twitter.

I am a big numbers guy. They fascinate me (weird, I know). I enjoy looking at box scores of games I have seen to make sense of the outcome. I could also spend a large amount of time dissecting team stats if I didn't have a wife, grad school and research to tend to. Therefore, it is natural for me to want to look at the numbers to explain why the Razorbacks have been struggling these last few games. 

So let me discuss what I believe to be the roots of the problem and how Dave Van Horn and company can fix it.

First, I do not believe Van Horn can actually do anything to fix it. Sure he can mix up the lineup (which he has done) or light a fire under some guys with post game speeches (probably did that as well). But at the end of the day the players have to respond.

Offense

Everyone slumps. I get that. Even teams slump together at times. But I wouldn’t say the Razorbacks are in a complete slump offensively. They are still hitting .315, good for 14^th in the country, and slugging (total bases reached per at bat) .483, which ranks them 6^th. However, they are now 45^th with 6.9 runs scored per game after being among the top 5 for the first several weeks of the season.

The large drop in scoring has come primarily because timely hitting has dropped. One statistic that supports this theory is runners left on base. At the end of each inning the number of runners that are stranded on base are counted.

You normally don’t care about leaving many runners on base if you score a lot of runs. That just means you have been getting on base all game and, after all, you don’t expect to score every runner you get on base. But if you have a large number of runners left on base and haven’t scored many runs, you need to do a better job of hitting when there are opportunities to score.

Arkansas has left 7.2 runners per game this season. The first game against Gonzaga they left 8 runners and lost by 4. The game before that against Loyola Marymount they left 9 on base and were shutout 9-0. Against Maryland they lost by 7 and left 6 on base and against UCF they left 9 on base and lost by 4, all the while recording 10 and 11 hits in those respective games.

Watching the games also gives insight that statistics cannot. It will never show up in the box score that Bobby Wernes hit the ball well right at someone several times in the last few games. Baseball was created in such a way that it naturally would be the demise of hitters. There are so few places to hit a ball where there isn’t someone occupying space close enough to get you out.

Offensively, the ultimate issue isn’t that they are not hitting. They just aren’t getting the hits in situations that can score runs, which is a problem that can fix itself as long as the team keeps hitting.

Pitching

Where to start, right?

It is appropriate to start with the end – the relief pitching. The bullpen depth was projected to be the weak part of this team. We knew they were inexperienced, young, and not highly prospected.

But could we have foreseen it would be this bad?

In 121 innings this pitching staff has allowed 70 walks, hit 21 batters, thrown 15 wild pitches, and balked 3 times while posting a 4.46 ERA. Earned run average is how many runs you allow without the use of an error per 9 innings. I consider less than 3.5 good. We have had a cumulative 2.47 the last 3 years. Something is very different this year.

We have 3 starters and 1 reliever I feel confident putting out there against the best teams. There is also a group of pitchers I don’t feel confident putting out there against the worst teams.

In an effort to not single any one player out I will refer to this group of pitchers as the bottom 4 in ERA. Easy to spot on the stats list (at the bottom), they are the guys who won’t hear their number called when conference games start this weekend. They have accounted for 35% of the team’s walks, 30% of the hit batters, 2 of the 3 balks, and have a combined 11.38 ERA in 22.2 innings.

Strangely enough, this group has also struck out 33 batters (26% of team total). That is a good total in just over 22 innings. If they are trying to strike out every batter they face then this debacle can easily be fixed. Try to pitch to contact more. In other words, don't be scared to let them be able to put the bat on the ball.

Not being able to throw strikes is the biggest problem you can have as a pitcher. At least by putting it over the plate you give the 8 guys around you the chance to field the ball and make an out. Putting people on base at the rate the Razorbacks have lately has been most frustrating. To fans, players, and coaches alike. I have no doubt the most frustrated of all are thinking right now of ways they are going to come out and perform better next time. For their playing time’s sake and for the sake of this team’s success, they better figure it out quickly.

Beginning Friday, this schedule is about to become exponentially more difficult. The next two weekends’ series are against two teams that have been ranked No. 1 already this season. As good of hitting teams as they are, I’m sure they are going to be well coached to be patient against a struggling bullpen.

Do I think the season is tanked? Am I throwing in the towel before the real season even starts?

I don’t think that is appropriate. But I will be keeping an eye on the state of clutch hitting and relief pitching. It will be interesting and fun to see who will step up. The offense is too deep to not find those who can, and the pitching staff is too well coached not to have some answer the call.

Now that the “preseason” has come and gone, the Diamond Hogs will need to wipe the slate clean and come out in Nashville with a fresh approach.

Razorbacks Ready for Warmer Weather

After a long wait, the Diamond Hogs were able to play a much needed three game series over the last two days. Eastern Illinois was kind enough to come down and fill in when weather kept Cal from flying over for a 4 game series. The result was a sweep and Arkansas is now 6-0 at home after three weeks of play.

Monday was not exactly ideal weather for baseball. In fact, if it weren’t for Mike Bernal’s grand slam in the second game, we would be looking back at two mediocre offensive productions on Monday. Even if they were just 7 inning games, against an opponent like EIU you expect to score runs early and often. When the weather warmed on Tuesday the Hogs’ bats did as well. It just shows how much of a warm weather sport baseball was made to be.

I have been reading arguments this season more than ever about whether the college baseball season should be moved back 2-3 weeks. Some say it is too late to start because you are finishing the season when students are out of school, and it would take away from the atmosphere of most parks. Others say it is just too cold to start in February, especially for the northeastern teams that are starting to get a greater following. Of course the rebuttal for that argument is that the west coast and desert teams would have to play in unbearably hot games if schedules dipped into late June.

For many teams from the north like the North Dakota team Arkansas played this year, the first month of the season is played on the road. These are typically poor teams and there is plenty of reason behind that. If you aren’t playing at home you most likely cannot practice much outside either, thus leading to more losses. Losing programs and poor playing weather are not conducive to good recruiting, and the carousel continues.

I have sat in the stands and watched the Hogs play while it was snowing before, and it was not pleasant. There could be a happy medium for everyone, but for now we will just have to deal with the cold.

But there are warm days on the 10 day forecast. And the sun looks to shine on the Razorbacks when they take on Loyola Marymount in an important series this weekend. The Lions are coming off a mid week road win over a tough Long Beach State team. This series will provide another challenge like the one they got in Mobile and missed when Cal was canceled, before starting the conference schedule with No. 1 Vanderbilt.

This weekend brings much anticipation for Diamond Hogs fans as Trey Killian looks to be making his first start of the season. Killian returned 19 of the 25 starts on this staff coming into 2015, and his presence at the head of the weekend rotation will be the key to a successful season and postseason. Dave Van Horn said that he would be on a 40-60 pitch count, “and then we’ll go from there.” Barring any set backs, this weekend will be a great opportunity to test the arm that has been giving him trouble since last summer.

In his absence Arkansas has struggled to find a third starter. Dominic Taccolini has turned in a couple of quality starts and has a team leading 18 strikeouts in 16 innings, while Keaton McKinney has been very impressive since taking over the third spot in the rotation, posting a 1.46 ERA in over 12 innings.

Zach Jackson tried his hand at starting, but it looks as if the long relief role will best suit him going forward. He leads the team in and walks (11), is second in strikeouts (12), and has only allowed 1 earned run in 8.2 innings. I have been very impressed with Jackson Lowery, Josh Alberius, and Parker Sanburn who have given up a combined 2 earned runs in over 20 innings with 15 strikeouts and just 5 walks.

Bobby Wernes continues to hit everything that is thrown at him, and Mike Bernal has made a splash getting back into the lineup coming off an injury in the offseason. Even missing a game to illness, Tyler Spoon leads the team in RBI (10) and hits (14).

Someone who I believe needs more consistent playing time is Carson Shaddy. Penciled in 20 minutes before the game Tuesday he turned in a 3 for 3 performance to bump his average to .526 on the season. Shaddy can play the outfield as well as catch; so there shouldn’t be any reason not to see him get more time--perhaps in left field where Joe Serrano and Luke Bonfield have underwhelmed thus far.

This team has shown solid defense through three weeks, turning 13 double plays in 9 games and committing 7 errors, 4 of which came in that one forgettable inning in Mobile. To put the errors in perspective, opponents have booted the ball 14 times against Arkansas.

There is no doubt that this weekend will be very refreshing. After having squandered a game in Mobile and having snow push last weekend to Monday and Tuesday, a normal routine will be just what the Hogs need. Arkansas cannot complain too much while others are enduring worse weather and schedules. But it is a wonder what a little sun in your own yard can do for you.