Can Numbers Explain Diamond Hogs' Woes?

This blog post isn’t going to be pretty. There is your warning.

However, it will reflect the way Arkansas has played these last few games. In short, the Hogs are not getting timely hits and are not throwing strikes.

But if I were only to speak in short, there would be no reason to blog. I could fit that into 140 characters on Twitter.

I am a big numbers guy. They fascinate me (weird, I know). I enjoy looking at box scores of games I have seen to make sense of the outcome. I could also spend a large amount of time dissecting team stats if I didn't have a wife, grad school and research to tend to. Therefore, it is natural for me to want to look at the numbers to explain why the Razorbacks have been struggling these last few games. 

So let me discuss what I believe to be the roots of the problem and how Dave Van Horn and company can fix it.

First, I do not believe Van Horn can actually do anything to fix it. Sure he can mix up the lineup (which he has done) or light a fire under some guys with post game speeches (probably did that as well). But at the end of the day the players have to respond.

Offense

Everyone slumps. I get that. Even teams slump together at times. But I wouldn’t say the Razorbacks are in a complete slump offensively. They are still hitting .315, good for 14^th in the country, and slugging (total bases reached per at bat) .483, which ranks them 6^th. However, they are now 45^th with 6.9 runs scored per game after being among the top 5 for the first several weeks of the season.

The large drop in scoring has come primarily because timely hitting has dropped. One statistic that supports this theory is runners left on base. At the end of each inning the number of runners that are stranded on base are counted.

You normally don’t care about leaving many runners on base if you score a lot of runs. That just means you have been getting on base all game and, after all, you don’t expect to score every runner you get on base. But if you have a large number of runners left on base and haven’t scored many runs, you need to do a better job of hitting when there are opportunities to score.

Arkansas has left 7.2 runners per game this season. The first game against Gonzaga they left 8 runners and lost by 4. The game before that against Loyola Marymount they left 9 on base and were shutout 9-0. Against Maryland they lost by 7 and left 6 on base and against UCF they left 9 on base and lost by 4, all the while recording 10 and 11 hits in those respective games.

Watching the games also gives insight that statistics cannot. It will never show up in the box score that Bobby Wernes hit the ball well right at someone several times in the last few games. Baseball was created in such a way that it naturally would be the demise of hitters. There are so few places to hit a ball where there isn’t someone occupying space close enough to get you out.

Offensively, the ultimate issue isn’t that they are not hitting. They just aren’t getting the hits in situations that can score runs, which is a problem that can fix itself as long as the team keeps hitting.

Pitching

Where to start, right?

It is appropriate to start with the end – the relief pitching. The bullpen depth was projected to be the weak part of this team. We knew they were inexperienced, young, and not highly prospected.

But could we have foreseen it would be this bad?

In 121 innings this pitching staff has allowed 70 walks, hit 21 batters, thrown 15 wild pitches, and balked 3 times while posting a 4.46 ERA. Earned run average is how many runs you allow without the use of an error per 9 innings. I consider less than 3.5 good. We have had a cumulative 2.47 the last 3 years. Something is very different this year.

We have 3 starters and 1 reliever I feel confident putting out there against the best teams. There is also a group of pitchers I don’t feel confident putting out there against the worst teams.

In an effort to not single any one player out I will refer to this group of pitchers as the bottom 4 in ERA. Easy to spot on the stats list (at the bottom), they are the guys who won’t hear their number called when conference games start this weekend. They have accounted for 35% of the team’s walks, 30% of the hit batters, 2 of the 3 balks, and have a combined 11.38 ERA in 22.2 innings.

Strangely enough, this group has also struck out 33 batters (26% of team total). That is a good total in just over 22 innings. If they are trying to strike out every batter they face then this debacle can easily be fixed. Try to pitch to contact more. In other words, don't be scared to let them be able to put the bat on the ball.

Not being able to throw strikes is the biggest problem you can have as a pitcher. At least by putting it over the plate you give the 8 guys around you the chance to field the ball and make an out. Putting people on base at the rate the Razorbacks have lately has been most frustrating. To fans, players, and coaches alike. I have no doubt the most frustrated of all are thinking right now of ways they are going to come out and perform better next time. For their playing time’s sake and for the sake of this team’s success, they better figure it out quickly.

Beginning Friday, this schedule is about to become exponentially more difficult. The next two weekends’ series are against two teams that have been ranked No. 1 already this season. As good of hitting teams as they are, I’m sure they are going to be well coached to be patient against a struggling bullpen.

Do I think the season is tanked? Am I throwing in the towel before the real season even starts?

I don’t think that is appropriate. But I will be keeping an eye on the state of clutch hitting and relief pitching. It will be interesting and fun to see who will step up. The offense is too deep to not find those who can, and the pitching staff is too well coached not to have some answer the call.

Now that the “preseason” has come and gone, the Diamond Hogs will need to wipe the slate clean and come out in Nashville with a fresh approach.

Razorbacks Ready for Warmer Weather

After a long wait, the Diamond Hogs were able to play a much needed three game series over the last two days. Eastern Illinois was kind enough to come down and fill in when weather kept Cal from flying over for a 4 game series. The result was a sweep and Arkansas is now 6-0 at home after three weeks of play.

Monday was not exactly ideal weather for baseball. In fact, if it weren’t for Mike Bernal’s grand slam in the second game, we would be looking back at two mediocre offensive productions on Monday. Even if they were just 7 inning games, against an opponent like EIU you expect to score runs early and often. When the weather warmed on Tuesday the Hogs’ bats did as well. It just shows how much of a warm weather sport baseball was made to be.

I have been reading arguments this season more than ever about whether the college baseball season should be moved back 2-3 weeks. Some say it is too late to start because you are finishing the season when students are out of school, and it would take away from the atmosphere of most parks. Others say it is just too cold to start in February, especially for the northeastern teams that are starting to get a greater following. Of course the rebuttal for that argument is that the west coast and desert teams would have to play in unbearably hot games if schedules dipped into late June.

For many teams from the north like the North Dakota team Arkansas played this year, the first month of the season is played on the road. These are typically poor teams and there is plenty of reason behind that. If you aren’t playing at home you most likely cannot practice much outside either, thus leading to more losses. Losing programs and poor playing weather are not conducive to good recruiting, and the carousel continues.

I have sat in the stands and watched the Hogs play while it was snowing before, and it was not pleasant. There could be a happy medium for everyone, but for now we will just have to deal with the cold.

But there are warm days on the 10 day forecast. And the sun looks to shine on the Razorbacks when they take on Loyola Marymount in an important series this weekend. The Lions are coming off a mid week road win over a tough Long Beach State team. This series will provide another challenge like the one they got in Mobile and missed when Cal was canceled, before starting the conference schedule with No. 1 Vanderbilt.

This weekend brings much anticipation for Diamond Hogs fans as Trey Killian looks to be making his first start of the season. Killian returned 19 of the 25 starts on this staff coming into 2015, and his presence at the head of the weekend rotation will be the key to a successful season and postseason. Dave Van Horn said that he would be on a 40-60 pitch count, “and then we’ll go from there.” Barring any set backs, this weekend will be a great opportunity to test the arm that has been giving him trouble since last summer.

In his absence Arkansas has struggled to find a third starter. Dominic Taccolini has turned in a couple of quality starts and has a team leading 18 strikeouts in 16 innings, while Keaton McKinney has been very impressive since taking over the third spot in the rotation, posting a 1.46 ERA in over 12 innings.

Zach Jackson tried his hand at starting, but it looks as if the long relief role will best suit him going forward. He leads the team in and walks (11), is second in strikeouts (12), and has only allowed 1 earned run in 8.2 innings. I have been very impressed with Jackson Lowery, Josh Alberius, and Parker Sanburn who have given up a combined 2 earned runs in over 20 innings with 15 strikeouts and just 5 walks.

Bobby Wernes continues to hit everything that is thrown at him, and Mike Bernal has made a splash getting back into the lineup coming off an injury in the offseason. Even missing a game to illness, Tyler Spoon leads the team in RBI (10) and hits (14).

Someone who I believe needs more consistent playing time is Carson Shaddy. Penciled in 20 minutes before the game Tuesday he turned in a 3 for 3 performance to bump his average to .526 on the season. Shaddy can play the outfield as well as catch; so there shouldn’t be any reason not to see him get more time--perhaps in left field where Joe Serrano and Luke Bonfield have underwhelmed thus far.

This team has shown solid defense through three weeks, turning 13 double plays in 9 games and committing 7 errors, 4 of which came in that one forgettable inning in Mobile. To put the errors in perspective, opponents have booted the ball 14 times against Arkansas.

There is no doubt that this weekend will be very refreshing. After having squandered a game in Mobile and having snow push last weekend to Monday and Tuesday, a normal routine will be just what the Hogs need. Arkansas cannot complain too much while others are enduring worse weather and schedules. But it is a wonder what a little sun in your own yard can do for you.

Keep Calm and Throw Strikes

Well we can start freaking out now and give up on the season because we lost 2/3 in Mobile. Or we can put things in perspective and have an open mind about the rest of the games to be played.

So far Arkansas has done exactly what we surmised. They have hit better (.371) than any other team in the SEC, and are the only team in the conference to register at least 10 hits and to score at least 5 runs in all of their games.

The Hogs have the fourth most homeruns (8) in the league and, with the exception of a four-error inning, they have played great defense.

The struggles have come in the pitching department and especially detrimental in the bullpen. In 53 innings the Hogs have 61 strikeouts, a good number. They also have given up 50 hits and 30 free passes which is cause for concern. Walks and hits per inning (WHIP) is a statistic next to ERA in importance as you can probably tell when thinking about it. 1.00 and lower are considered elite WHIP numbers. I can do simple math and Arkansas' is 1.51.

This past weekend relief pitchers allowed four-run and nine-run innings. While it’s understandable for Freshmen such as Kyle Pate and Jonah Patten to struggle early, Senior returning closer Jacob Stone had an inexplicable outing-to-forget against Maryland. He will have show grit and bounce back if this team is going to have much success going forward.

UCF proved to be the best team of the weekend, finishing undefeated. Arkansas can chalk that loss up to just getting beat. The loss to Maryland was much harder to swallow. With a 6-1 lead after 5 spectacular innings from Freshman Keaton McKinney in his first start, the Hogs went on to give up 12 runs (only 6 earned) on 5 errors.

But Arkansas has not done very well in these types of early away series in which they play a different team each game. Last year they struggled in Berkley, CA, and two years ago in Surprise, AZ they came up completely empty in 4 games. And these games in Mobile were played against much better all around talent.

Especially with a young pitching staff, it is much more important to take the good away from them and learn from the bad than it is to win all of them. Sure, it would boost RPI and maybe even get us into more rankings if we win at least one more of those games. But with a progressive attitude, I choose to look forward to the upcoming games against other top quality opponents and take advantage of opportunities they still have.

Dave Van Horn is letting a lot of people pitch in these first 6 games. In doing so he is getting an idea of whom he can count on and pass on in situations. Let’s also keep in mind the best returning pitcher (Trey Killian) is still at least a couple weeks away from contributing much.

I have been pleasantly surprised with infielder turned pitcher Josh Alberius’ stuff, and Jackson Lowery has logged 5 scoreless innings so far after struggling through last season. With depth being an issue, it will be nice to get more quality innings from these two, as well as improvements from Patten and James Teague.

Offensively, Carson Shaddy has gone above and beyond what anyone may have expected. Van Horn sang his praises all winter, but seeing is believing in the baseball world and Shaddy is not disappointing. Bobby Wernes is also a pleasant surprise. After finishing the season among the worst averages last season, he is leading the team with a .474 average and .565 on base percentage.

With essentially everyone hitting through the first two weeks, the only two with slow starts are Andrew Benintendi and Luke Bonfield. These are the two highest touted hitters Arkansas has received the last two years, so I am not terribly worried about slow starts in these cases.

With winter weather hitting Fayetteville already this week, the Hogs are no doubt taking advantage of their indoor facility. But it would be nice to get out in it these next two days for some work as this weekends’ series with Cal is going to be played through some cold and potentially rainy weather.

Be patient, keep watching and keep reading. The Diamond Hogs have been in this situation before and came out of it better and finished the season much stronger.  

Dominant Start for Hogs

Arkansas dominated the opening weekend against North Dakota in impressive all around fashion. The offense scored 36 runs on 48 hits – 18 for extra bases – in three games. It was a full team effort, but Clark Eagan did stand out with 8 hits and 7 RBI. Andrew Benintendi was the lone struggler in the hits department with 2, but was still able to reach base 7 times with 4 walks and a hit by pitch, as well as drive in 3 runs and steal a base.

The Razorbacks were also dominant on the mound, posting a 2.33 ERA and striking out 39 while walking only 10 in 27 innings. Twelve pitchers were used but only four allowed runs. Zach Jackson and Dominic Taccolini both produced dominant starts while Jonah Patten and Cannon Chadwick stood out in relief efforts.

The most impressive statistic of the weekend was the goose egg in the error column for the Hogs. Typically, opening weekends are when nerves surface and the ball is booted around. Being able to practice indoors this season has proven beneficial already, as 12 players combined for a perfect fielding percentage.

Looking forward, Arkansas will travel to Mobile, AL this weekend to take on a trio of undefeated teams (pending mid week games), two of which are ranked. No. 13 Maryland beat Western Kentucky, Canisius and Old Dominion, No. 22 Central Florida swept Siena, and South Alabama won three against New Orleans.

With James Teague struggling in his first start, and there being no mid week games for Arkansas, I could see Dave Van Horn going with either Keaton McKinney or Jonah Patten – both Freshmen – to start one of the games this weekend. McKinney came in to put out the fire and hold North Dakota to one run in 3.1 innings Friday, while Patten struck out 5 in 2 innings of work on Saturday.

That being said, it would also make sense to leave Teague in the rotation to see how he bounces back. He definitely has starter stuff and was cruising Friday until the third inning when he hit a batter and walked two more before giving up a hit.

It was very good to see Michael Bernal back in the lineup on Saturday, proving to be over his knee injury. While the lineup proved to be efficient without him, the depth and skill he brings to the defense is invaluable.

Two other noteworthy performances were by Cullen Gassaway and Chad Spanberger. They both were in the starting lineup for the last game and combined 6 for 10 with a double, triple, and 5 RBI.

Playing a team like North Dakota doesn’t exactly provide the challenge that other teams will. With the huge numbers that were put up, the question now is: are the Hogs that good, or UND that bad? I say, why not both?

The Razorbacks are definitely on the right track, winning in impressive fashion over a weak opponent. This weekend, however, will test their metal against much tougher opponents in all three games.

Season Preview 2015

This Friday, Arkansas will embark on another journey through one of their toughest schedules I have seen them play. Head coach Dave Van Horn expressed his frustrations last season when he lost RPI points for beating teams that were so poor.

The SEC is atop the rankings again this season, so there is no surprise that the conference schedule will prove to be difficult. However, the non conference schedule brings some talent to Baum Stadium and takes Arkansas on the road to face some challenges.

The Razorbacks were tripped up early last year in California, losing two games to Cal. They also lost to Gonzaga two years ago in Arizona. These are two teams which they will play a total of 6 games against this year at home. They will also play Maryland (in Mobile) who was only one win away from the College World Series (CWS) last year.

Other notable opponents are South Alabama (who won two out of three at Arkansas last year), Loyola Marymount (32-24 last season), Central Florida (36-23), SE Missouri St. (37-20), and Memphis (who beat Ole Miss and Miss. St.). The Hogs will also get to play in TD Ameritrade Park, where the CWS is played, against Creighton.

I have Arkansas going 40-16 in the regular season and 17-13 in the SEC with home series losses to Mississippi State and Tennessee and road wins at Auburn and Alabama. Player of the year will be Andrew Benintendi, Pitcher of the year will be Zack Jackson, and new comer of the year will be Luke Bonfield.

While watching a practice and scrimmage last Saturday, I wrote some notes about things I thought I might like to add to a blog. I would like to share some things I took away from that day and other practices I have seen, as well as give a little preview of the team and season. First of all I took away a bad sunburn on my face. But I wasn’t even mad. It’s February!

Watching infield outfield drills I got to see the arm strengths of the outfielders. I was very impressed with Fr. Chad Spanberger’s arm strength. He is listed as a catcher but showed that he needs some work back there during scrimmaging. From what I have read his bat will require playing time in the coming years. R-Jr. Tyler Spoon showed a plus and accurate arm in right while So. Andrew Benintendi has gained a lot of muscle mass and improved arm strength in center.

Jr. Bobby Wernes continued to flash the leather at third base. His ability to pick the ball off the ground will come in handy at the hot corner. Jr. Rick Nomura has very quick hands at second base. At 5’9”, 175 he is more of a slap hitter but his speed will stretch some singles into doubles, and his veteran play will run us into some games.

So. Clark Eagan was back at first base after nursing a sore shoulder. He will be a mainstay at the leadoff spot this season and hopefully pick up where he left off last year hitting .301.

The first scrimmage I watched seemed like head coach Van Horn had his starting roster on one team. The players mentioned above were joined by R-Jr. Brett McAfee at short, who will be the sure starter as long as R-Jr. Mike Bernal is out with a knee injury. Sr. Joe Serrano took his spot in left field while Fr. Luke Bonfield filled the DH spot. Junor Tucker Pennell was catching which made me think he will be starting day one. But in subsequent scrimmages that I have seen since then R-Fr. Carson Shaddy and So. Alex Gosser have split time with the ones.

The best news I have indicates that Jr. Trey Killian is coming along well in his recovery. As I arrived late to one of the scrimmages he was running foul poles and the only others that ran that day were pitchers who had actually pitched in the scrimmage. As the ace of the rotation I think it is imperative to have him pitching this season if they are going to go far into post season.

 Other than those mentioned already, I have a few names I would like to mention that I believe will contribute this season and for seasons to come. Sophomores Dominic Taccolini, Zack Jackson, and James Teague are right handed pitchers that have the stuff it takes to start in the SEC. With various amounts of experience under their bills, Dave Jorn will lean heavily on them to account for the majority of innings pitched over the next 2-3 years. 

Fr. Keaton McKinney is the prototypical starting pitcher. He has the size, velocity, and hype coming into this season as a top major league prospect out of high school. I can see him starting mid week games to gain experience and jump into the weekend mix when needed. He is the future of our pitching staff.

Sr. Jacob stone will resume the closer role and will keep hitters off balance with his side-to-sub arm delivery. R-Fr. Parker Sanburn has impressed me in the few innings I have seen him pitch, and Fr. Jonah Patten could be this year’s Zack Jackson of last season. Fr. Kyle Pate is the lone left handed pitcher on the squad that looks to make a difference this season.

As I mentioned, Bernal is down with a knee and that has allowed others to step up and get reps in the infield. This is the deepest offensive team Van Horn possibly has ever had and that is most evident in the infield depth. Jr. Max Hogan brings veteran leadership and a quality bat to the bench. I would not be surprised to see him work his way into the every day lineup. 

I am big on Fr. Blake Wiggins, although as of now there isn’t a place for him. He plays both corner infield positions and also boasts a large bat. Jr. Cullen Gassaway looks the part of a power hitter with his large, thick frame. He, Wiggins, and Jr. Matt Campbell all transferred in this year and will contribute to what I believe is the best bench in the nation.

I alluded a little to the catching position earlier, but I lean more towards Pennell starting over Gosser. He has more experience at the position in college baseball and has shown in the practices I have seen that he can defend the position at a high level.

Sr. K.J. Wilkerson has been wearing a wrist brace during the last couple practices I have seen but once healthy could provide a spark in the DH or pinch hitting roles.

Other than noting who is playing where and how they are doing, I also took notes on random things that stood out to me. 

Assistant coach Tony Vitello was the one hitting infield/outfield. When infielders started turning double plays I noticed that after making the play and the first baseman had thrown to the catcher, someone would yell "two!" and the catcher would throw down to second where another command was yelled out to "cut four!" or "three!" This is to work on making quick decisions and executing when something unexpected happens. This was most unexpected by Van Horn as he immediately yelled at the players that they were not supposed to do this until the second round of double plays. Vitello then turned and apologized, explaining that he had jumped the gun and told players to do it.

There were many fans in the stands for a practice and at one point Vitello looked up behind the dugout at someone he knew and with a straight face and stern voice said "this is a closed practice, you gotta go", then turned and walked off. It took me a second to figure out he was kidding and it made a few people in the area look around as if to say "was he serious?"

In normal practices players go searching through the bleachers after foul balls to bring them back to practice with. During the scrimmage one such ball was hit and a player started after it until Van Horn called for him to leave it. It was understood that he knew plenty of kids were in attendance and would be thrilled to go home with a ball.

Bonfield was batting and hit a ground ball to the left side and noticeably tried running faster than normal to beat it out, but failed. When returning to the dugout Vitello stopped him to tell him to "stay in your stride, you'll be safe or out, don't try to run faster than you are". That was great advice. That will save him from many pulled muscles and potentially falling flat on his face if he listens.

I cannot say enough how much bigger Benintendi is, especially in his upper body. He was unable to play summer ball due to injury so he was able to spend a lot of time in the weight room. While it looks like he will have more power in his swing, he has not lost any speed that his small frame showed last year. On a well hit line drive to left center field, Benny ran the ball down from straight away center just before running into the wall. While he may not have the strong arm that Baum has seen in center in recent years, he will be able to make as many tough plays with the glove.

Thank you for reading and please post comments of questions or suggestions you have for me and my blog.